ToR for Development of Floodplain Change Scenarios Based on Hydrological Modelling and Land Use Planning

Terms of Reference (ToR)

Development of Floodplain Change Scenarios Based on Hydrological Modelling and Land Use Planning for Marin Rural Municipality, Sindhuli District and Gadhimai Municipality, Rautahat District

1. Background

Heifer Project International Nepal (HPIN) is dedicated to ending hunger and poverty while caring for the earth. Since its establishment in 1998, Heifer has transformed the lives of over 400,000 families through agriculture and livestock programs. By fostering Self-Help Groups and Social Entrepreneur Women’s Cooperatives, Heifer helps build resilient communities and promote sustainable livelihoods.

Building Agroforestry-based Adaptation plans for Resilient floodplains (BAGAR) project aims to reduce climate-induced flood risks and improve livelihoods in the floodplains of Marin Rural Municipality, Sindhuli and Gadhimai Municipality, Rautahat. The project prioritizes vulnerable and marginalized groups such as Dalits and Indigenous populations, through Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) approaches. The project also aligns national and international commitments like the SDGs, NDCs and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

The project works with community-based organizations (CBOs), municipalities and other stakeholders to develop EbA master plans and document lessons for replication in other municipalities.

Under BAGAR, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment, Land Use Plans and Hydrological Modelling have been prepared for both project municipalities. The plans contain land-use and land-cover analysis, floodplain and river-corridor zoning, community-based flood hazard maps, soil and geology information, ecosystem restoration and agroforestry priorities and implementation frameworks. Hydrological modelling and flood-frequency analysis have also generated return-period discharges and other information relevant to floodplain planning. These products provide a strong technical foundation but they need to be integrated into a consistent scenario framework that shows how flood hazards, river and floodplain form, land use, exposure, ecosystems and livelihoods may change under alternative development and management pathways.

Static land-use maps or single-event flood maps do not by themselves show the consequences of continued unplanned growth, implementation of the approved land-use plans, expansion of agroforestry and floodplain restoration, changes in river conveyance or drainage, maintenance or failure of protective infrastructure and future hydrological or climate stress. Scenario analysis is therefore required to compare plausible futures and identify a preferred pathway for risk-sensitive land use, ecosystem restoration, resilient livelihoods and investment.

Marin Rural Municipality represents a Chure-Siwalik and inner-valley river system shaped by the Marin River and numerous tributaries. Flood dynamics include rapid runoff, flash flooding, sediment transport, riverbank cutting, channel instability, erosion-prone slopes and dry-season water stress. Gadhimai Municipality lies in the flat alluvial floodplain of the Bagmati River where overbank flooding, prolonged inundation and waterlogging, riverbank erosion, sediment deposition, channel shifting, drainage constraints and embankment conditions are major concerns. The modelling approach, assumptions and interpretation shall therefore be tailored to each municipality while using a common comparison framework.

The assignment is expected to produce more than a set of maps. It shall provide transparent and reproducible decision-support products that explain the assumptions behind each scenario, quantify changes from the baseline, identify who and what may be affected, show where risk is reduced or transferred, identify priority land-use and EbA measures and connect the preferred scenarios to investment opportunities, potential investors or financiers, implementation responsibilities and monitoring indicators.

2. Project Working Areas

The project has been working with vulnerable communities in the following municipalities of Bagmati and Madhesh Province:

1. Marin Rural Municipality of Sindhuli District
2. Gadhimai Municipality of Rautahat District

The analysis shall cover the whole municipal territory and all relevant river and drainage systems with detailed attention to the floodplain reaches, river corridors, tributary junctions, wetlands and water bodies, agricultural and agroforestry zones, settlements, infrastructure, embankments, drainage paths, erosion- and deposition-prone areas, degraded lands and ecosystems identified in the municipal plans. The modelling domain may extend beyond administrative boundaries where necessary to represent contributing catchments and appropriate upstream or downstream boundary conditions while the decision products shall remain focused on the two municipalities and their wards.

FOR SUBMISSION

Interested and eligible consulting firms, individuals or organizations shall submit separate technical and financial proposals for the Development of Floodplain Change Scenarios for Marin Rural Municipality, Sindhuli, and Gadhimai Municipality, Rautahat. The submission shall include:

• Letter of interest and brief organizational profile.
• Technical proposal demonstrating understanding of the assignment, detailed methodology, consultation and meeting strategy, approach to spatial EbA planning, costing, investment opportunity development and potential investor mapping, quality assurance, risk management workplan.
• Financial proposal with detailed cost breakdown and clear assumptions, including all costs required.
• Copy of legal registration documents, PAN/VAT registration and latest tax clearance certificate.
• Self-declaration on eligibility, conflict of interest and accuracy of information.
• At least three relevant sample assignments or links to comparable EbA, climate adaptation, land-use, agroforestry, landscape restoration, investment or municipal planning work.
• Signed CVs of proposed professionals (maximum two pages each), clearly stating roles, responsibilities, level of effort and availability.
• Team deployment schedule and confirmation of capacity to undertake parallel fieldwork in both municipalities.
• Any proposed consortium or subcontracting arrangement with clear responsibility and authorization.

It is expected that applicants have carefully read and understood the objectives, scope, meeting requirements, deliverables, team requirements and proposal submission conditions.

The technical and financial proposals should be emailed with the subject line: " Development of Floodplain Change Scenarios".

The Technical Proposal and Financial Proposal files MUST BE COMPLETELY SEPARATE. The Financial Proposal shall be password-protected and clearly labelled. The password shall be provided only upon request from HPIN after completion of the technical evaluation. Failure to provide the correct password when requested may result in rejection of the proposal.

Submit the proposal on or before 30th July, 2026, 5:00 PM via email to procurement-np@ heifer.org 

For Detailed TOR :  TOR_Create scenarios of changes in floodplains.docx