MEL Analyst – Analysis on the impact of inflation on food security in Nepal

Scope of Work (SoW) for 

Analysis on the impact of Inflation on Food Security in Nepal 

1. Introduction

Mercy Corps is a leading global organization powered by the belief that a better world is possible. In disaster, in hardship, in more than 40 countries around the world, we partner to put bold solutions into action — helping people triumph over adversity and build stronger communities from within now, and for the future. Mercy Corps has been operating in Nepal since 2005, implementing programs in food security, agriculture, market development, financial services, girl’s education, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. We take a systems-based approach in our programming, with the aim of improving the lives and potential of vulnerable individuals and communities across Nepal.

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, Nepal is not exempt from the impacts being felt around the world, particularly the deteriorating food security situation. The sharp decline in agricultural exports coupled with rising oil prices is directly affecting households in Nepal and threatens to erase gains made in recent years. This is particularly concerning for vulnerable households with already high levels of food insecurity and precarious livelihoods, who are still recovering from the wide-ranging socio-economic impacts of COVID-19.

As a humanitarian organization with a big focus on food security, Mercy Corps is particularly concerned about the current situation and moreso, the potential for increasingly severe and long-lasting decreases in food security. Mercy Corps has a variety of programs, systems and tools in place to monitor food security, described below, which demonstrate increasing food insecurity across communities in Nepal.

This assignment aims to solicit technical support to undertake an analysis on the impact of current inflation on food security in Nepal which has been aggravated by various shocks and stresses including the Ukraine war, Covid-19, Natural disasters and effects of Climate change that has aggravated slow onset crisis . The assignment will support the establishment of an early warning system with triggers to inform a food security response. Along with the macro analysis from this assignment, the early warning triggers will be complemented by the microeconomic information that Mercy Corps Nepal is currently gathering. The assignment will focus on pre-existing working areas, although the scope of this study also extends to locations with chronic food insecurity in Nepal. 

2. Overall Objective

The objective of the assignment is to identify the key drivers of food insecurity in Karnali Province and other identified districts/regions and identify triggers to respond to any imminent  food security risk. The triggers for food insecurity are to be primarily informed by food and non-food based inflation, Nepal’s trade balance and the depletion of the country's foreign currency reserves. In addition, factors including migration, district market capacities, and others should be considered.

In addition to the macroeconomic analysis mentioned above, the consultant  should advise on key data points that Mercy Corps needs to consider/collect whilst generating data for microeconomic indicators such as food consumption capacities, purchasing capacities, changes in market prices, negative coping mechanisms undertaken to meet basic food needs and dietary diversity at the household and community level.

Mercy Corps (through the BHAKARI program) is already generating data in 6 districts along Karnalai River Basin (Surkhet, Dailekh, Achham, Kalikot, Jumla, Mugu) through a number of assessments as part of regular activities: (i) regular market price monitoring (ii) household needs assessment to identify food and nonfood items, which informs value for minimum expenditure basket (iii) vulnerability assessment during participants registration for response.

3. Specific Objectives

To supplement the overall objective of the assignment the consultant will: 

1. Conduct high level analysis of current food security situation in Nepal
2. Prioritize districts that are most vulnerable to food insecurity. 
3. Outline the potential impact of inflation on household food security for the most vulnerable. 
4. Provide technical input on the development of a concept note highlighting the risk of food insecurity in the Karnali Province along with possible mitigation measures.

4. Suggested Methodology

The assignment will use a qualitative approach to collect information mainly through the review of secondary information and various data and analysis undertaken by BHAKARI over the period of time and if required, KII with relevantstakeholders. The interviews will focus on the impact of inflation and the global crisis on household food security, agriculture production, livelihoods and market functionality. The consultant is expected to propose appropriate methodologies such as consultative workshops and others. 

The assignment should answer, but is not limited to, the following key questions:

• What is the current and projected food security situation at the national and local levels;
• How inflation is already impacting on food security and what would likely happen in the short to medium and longer term in areas (such as Karnali) where food security is already an issue; 
• What are the perceptions and preparedness actions to mitigate risk in the private sector; and,
• How can Mercy Corps support and respond to the current situation with a focus on the most vulnerable communities and populations.

5. Deliverables

The Assignment is expected to deliver the following outputs:

• Share top line findings of the assessments undertaken by BHAKARI team 
• Draft the report (in English) of the findings from the existing BHAKARI assessment which shows the food security status in BHAKARI working areas. 
• Develop a summary brief of the findings with recommendations.

6. Duration and Payment Schedule

This assignment is expected to be completed by 30 Oct 2022, with 5 working days (refer to Table 1 for timeline and estimated number of days.

Table 1: Payment schedule

7. Qualification and Experience

• A Bachelor’s degree or higher in Data Analysis, Statistics, or related areas
• Three (3) years or more of relevant experience in data analysis in the international development sector
• Demonstrated qualitative and quantitative analytical and visualization skills, including command of statistics, sampling methodologies, and use of data analysis methods and software
• Evidence of analyzing similar data sets and writing quality reports on Nepali and English 
• Strong analytical, critical thinking, and communication skills to include technical writing and editing
• Excellent communication skills in Nepali and demonstrated skills on workshop facilitation

7. Reporting

The consultant will report to the MEL Director, Mercy Corps Nepal and work in close consultation with the GESI Director, Knowledge Management Specialists and Emergency Response Senior Manager.

8. Required Documents for Submitting Proposal

Qualified consultants can send their application to np-procurement@mercycorps.org with the subject line “Analysis on the impact of Inflation on Food Security in Nepal” and the following documents by 12th October 2022.

• Technical Proposal
• Financial proposal
• CV
• Relevant Past Experience 
• Copy of VAT Registration Certificate (if applicable)
• Latest tax clearance certificate (if applicable)