Consultancy services to develop Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) on Impact Based Forecasting Procedure for Weather Related Hazards – RAINFALL, HEAT WAVE and COLD WAVE for DHM

Terms of Reference (ToR)

Consultancy services to develop Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) on Impact Based Forecasting Procedure for Weather Related Hazards – RAINFALL, HEAT WAVE and COLD WAVE for DHM

Background:

Nepal is increasingly experiencing the impacts of weather and climate-related hazards such as intense rainfall, heat waves, and cold waves, which significantly affect lives, livelihoods, infrastructure, agriculture, health, and essential services. With the growing need for anticipatory action and risk-informed decision-making, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) has been strengthening its forecasting and early warning capacities through modernization of forecasting systems and adoption of Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) approaches.

Unlike conventional weather forecasting, IBF translates meteorological information into potential impacts and actionable advisories for authorities, stakeholders, and at-risk communities. To institutionalize and operationalize IBF within DHM, there is a need to develop a comprehensive Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for rainfall, heat wave, and cold wave hazards.

The SOP will provide standardized guidance on forecasting workflows, impact analysis, warning generation, dissemination protocols, coordination mechanisms, roles and responsibilities, and operational procedures for hazard-specific IBF implementation. Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) has been piloting Impact Based Forecasting (IBF) for extreme rainfall events, landslides and flash floods since 2021 in various local levels. 

2. General Objective

To develop a comprehensive Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for operationalizing Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) for rainfall, heat wave, and cold wave hazards within DHM.

Specific Objectives

The assignment shall aim to:

• Review existing forecasting, warning dissemination, and hazard communication practices within DHM; 
• Assess national and international best practices on Impact-Based Forecasting; 
• Develop hazard-specific operational procedures for rainfall, heat wave, and cold wave forecasting; 
• Define thresholds, impact matrices, warning levels, and advisory mechanisms; 
• Establish institutional coordination and communication protocols among relevant stakeholders; 
• Develop standard formats/templates for forecasts, warnings, advisories, and impact bulletins;  
• Facilitate validation and finalization of the SOP through stakeholder consultation.

3. Scope of Work

The consultant/firm shall undertake the following tasks:

Task 1: Literature Review and Assessment

• Review existing DHM forecasting systems, operational workflows, warning protocols, and dissemination mechanisms;
• Review national policies, frameworks, and guidelines related to disaster risk reduction, early warning systems, and climate services;
• Review global best practices and guidance documents from organizations such as:

World Meteorological Organization, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, UK Met Office, Regional Climate Centers and other relevant agencies.

Task 2: Stakeholder Consultation

Conduct KIIs and FGDs/consultations with DHM divisions/offices and relevant stakeholders

Task 3: Development of Hazard-Specific IBF SOP

Develop detailed SOPs for:

• Heavy rainfall/extreme rainfall IBF
• Heat wave IBF
• Cold wave IBF

The SOP shall include:

• Forecast generation process;
• Monitoring and analysis procedures;
• Threshold definitions and trigger mechanisms;
• Impact assessment methodologies;
• Risk classification and warning levels;
• Roles and responsibilities of DHM divisions/offices;
• Coordination and communication mechanisms;
• Warning approval protocols;
• Dissemination channels and timelines;
• Feedback and verification mechanisms;
• Documentation and reporting procedures;
• Data management and archiving processes.

Task 4: Development of Operational Tools and Templates

Prepare:

• Impact matrices;
• Color-coded warning frameworks;
• Advisory templates;
• Forecast bulletin templates;
• Standard communication messages;

Task 5: Validation Workshop and Finalization

• Facilitate stakeholder consultation/validation workshop at DHM ;
• Incorporate comments and recommendations;
• Finalize and submit SOP documents.

4. Methodology

The consultant/firm shall propose an appropriate methodology, which may include:

• Desk review;
• Key informant interviews and Focused Group Discussions
• Stakeholder consultations/workshops;
• Technical assessment;
• Comparative analysis of global best practices;
• Participatory validation process.

5. Duration of Assignment

The total duration of the assignment shall be approximately 21 calendar days from the date of contract signing.

6. Required Expertise and Qualifications

The consultant should possess:

• Proven experience in meteorology, hydrology, climate services, disaster risk reduction, or early warning systems;
• Demonstrated experience in development of SOPs, operational guidelines, or forecasting frameworks;
• Experience working with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS);
• Experience in Impact-Based Forecasting or Forecast-Based Action (FbA)/Anticipatory Action is preferred.

7. Reporting and Coordination

The consultant/firm shall work closely with the designated focal person/team from DHM and PIN and coordinate regularly throughout the assignment period.

All deliverables shall be submitted to PIN and DHM in both editable and PDF formats.

8. Evaluation method (performance of evaluation criteria): 

Price (40%)

The evaluation result of this criterion equals the following formula: Price A/Price B * criteria weight. 

Price A = lowest price from all submitted offers; Price B = actual price offered by the tenderer.

Quality (60%)

The bids will be evaluated by a procurement committee considering the following criteria for a technical proposal. The total marks of the technical evaluation will be 60 whereas the weightage is given below. 

The evaluation result of this criterion equals to the following formula: Points B/Points A * criteria weight. Points A = highest points score from all; Points B = actual points score received from committee.

9. Financial and Payment Terms

PIN will provide the consultancy fees after the submission of the final report as mentioned above in deliverable section. As per GON policy, tax shall be deducted from the contractual amount. PIN will provide the logistics arrangements as per its policy (i.e. transportation, accommodation, per diems, etc.)

10. Application procedure

The applications should submit the following documents :

• Profile of the institution with CVs of key Personnel 
• Technical proposal with proven experience, key deliverables, plan of action, and timeline.
• Financial proposal budget breakdown 
• A copy of the Company Registration certificate (where applicable)
• A copy of VAT certificate and/or PAN details (obligatory)
• A copy of tax clearance for the last fiscal year (where applicable)

Interested individuals/firms are requested to send their application by 3rd June 2026 to eoi.nepal@peopleinneed.neta